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Jaxson Dart Dynasty Value: Big Arm, Bigger Question Marks

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Jaxson Dart enters the NFL after starting three straight seasons in the SEC.

He boasts NFL-caliber arm strength, powerful rushing ability, and the leadership needed to make an impact in the NFL and fantasy leagues.

But his film and college offensive system leave me with some big questions.

Let's dive into Dart's path to the league, his stats, and his film to figure out if he's going to win us some fantasy weeks ... or bust hard.

Jaxson Dart Dynasty Values

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Jaxson Dart Draft Profile

Jaxson Dart Combine Results

Wingspan	Arm Length	HAnd Size	40-yard Dash	10-yard split
Bench Press	Vertical	Broad Jump	3-cone drill	20-yard shuttle

Jaxson Dart College Stats

	games	COMPLETIONS	ATTEMPTS	COMP %	PASS YDS	PASS TDS	INTS	CARRIES	RUSH YARDS	RUSH TDS
2021 (USC)	6	117	189	61.9	1,353	9	5	22	43	2
2022 (Miss)	13	226	362	62.4	2,974	20	11	128	614	1
2023 (MISS)	13	233	358	65.1	3,364	23	5	119	389	8
2024 (MISS)	13	276	398	69.3	4,279	29	6	124	495	3

Quiet High School Start Leads to LOUD Finish

Dart attended Roy High School in Utah, where he played football and baseball. The team’s run-first offense limited his national exposure, but he still managed to throw for 5,997 yards and 50 TDs over three seasons as a starter.

Dart opted to go to 6A powerhouse Corner Canyon for his senior season, and won Gatorade National Player of the Year. He threw for 4,691 yards and 67 TDs while rushing for 1,195 yards and 12 more scores.

He caught the eye of USC coaches in an early televised game, leading to him earning four-star status and committing to play at Southern Cal.

Dart Seizes His Shot ... Briefly

Dart beat out fellow freshman Miller Moss for the backup job, and then he stepped in when starter Kedon Slovis went down early in the season.

At just 18, Dart led USC to a dominant win over Washington State. But a torn meniscus sidelined him for several weeks.

He would start the season's final five games, throwing for 1,353 yards, 9 TDs, and 5 INTs.

Dart’s future appeared bright due to his youth and obvious arm talent. But USC fired HC Clay Helton and hired Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma.

From Hollywood Lights to Southern Fights

Riley immediately brought over his QB from Norman, Caleb Williams.

If Dart wanted to remain a starter, he would need to transfer. Ole Miss and Oklahoma both tried to woo Dart, but he saw a better opportunity to start with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss.

The job wouldn’t be handed to him, though. Dart competed with incumbent starter Luke Altmyer, winning the job in the spring.

That set him up to lead an SEC program for the next three years.

Dart Gets Sharper, Season by Season

Dart improved each season under Kiffin.

	2022	2023	2024
PFF Grade	79.5	91.2	92.5
aDOT	10.6	10.5	11.9
Adjusted Completion %	70.5	74.6	77.7
Big Time Throw %	6.4	5.2	7.1
NFL Passer Rating	94.1	110.2	122.3

He also never missed a game.

Making plays with both his arm and legs, Dart helped build Ole Miss into a perennial top-25 team.

Dart capped his 2024 season as a finalist for the William V. Campbell Trophy, known as the "Academic Heisman."

Though there was some early NFL Draft buzz when he declared, Dart’s stock didn’t take off until the Senior Bowl in February.

Dart displayed his arm strength and decision-making while adjusting to a pro-style offense, creating buzz from the media and NFL teams alike.

Now, he is on the cusp of becoming a first-round NFL Draft pick, just shy of his 22nd birthday. 

Jaxson Dart Highlights

Games Watched: LSU (2023), Penn State (2023), Wake Forest (2024), Kentucky (2024), LSU (2024), Oklahoma (2024), Arkansas (2024), Georgia (2024), Florida (2024), Duke (2024)

Precision Bombs and Pro-Level Reads

Dart led all 2024 Combine QBs in average depth of target (aDOT) at 11.9 yards.

His arm strength and ball placement down the field makes him a big-play threat on every dropback.

When Dart’s pre-snap read presents man-to-man coverage on the outside, he will take the deep shot and allow his WR to gain separation and make a play.

Rarely does Dart just throw up 50/50 balls. He will throw his WRs long, keeping the ball out of reach from defenders to eliminate turnover potential.   

On this play, Dart reads the safety playing down and knows separation presents a TD opportunity.

He waits for his WR to hit the double move and places the ball perfectly to split the secondary.

Dart’s film is littered with this type of big-time NFL throw.

Sneaky Legs, Serious Fantasy Upside

Dart’s rushing ability gives his fantasy profile a boost vs. other QBs in the class.

Removing sacks, he ranked third among Combine QBs in rushing yards per attempt, behind Jalen Milroe and Riley Leonard.

At 223 pounds, Dart has enough bulk to run through defenders and break tackles while his athleticism gives him enough speed and explosiveness for the occasional big run.

He naturally transitions from buying time in the pocket to becoming a runner and could have some run plays scripted at the next level.

On this QB draw, Dart follows his lead blockers for a big chunk of open yardage up the middle. Dart eyes the end zone and plows through multiple defenders to cross the goal line.

For better or worse, he rarely slides at the end of runs, instead attempting to add yards through contact.

If Dart’s next OC leans into his rushing talent, Dart could rack up a few dozen yards on the ground each game.

Accuracy Turns Tight Windows Into Big Gains

Dart consistently led his WRs to space, maximizing yards after the catch and setting up big plays.

His accuracy and ball placement, even in tighter spaces, put his WRs in position to win against man coverage, even if they had little separation.

Dart's ability to fit passes through tight windows often made the difference between an incompletion and a big gain.

The Cover-3 defense often presents problems for QBs who have to throw the ball beyond the second level without leading the WR into the secondary.

Dart pulls off a perfect Cover-3 beater here for a first down, arcing the ball above the LB, allowing it to fall cleanly into his WR's hands in front of the safety.

When Dart reads the coverage well, his accuracy and ball placement make him very difficult to defend.

But When the Script Breaks Down ...

The Lane Kiffin offense simplifies many concepts that NFL QBs need.

The offense uses motion and stacks pre-snap to assess the defensive play, providing the QB with a predetermined read for the throw.

That means Kiffin's QBs rarely have to go through progressions or read a defense.

Dart, for example, would often identify man coverage and know he was throwing the slant to Tre Harris before even taking the snap.

QBs such as Matt Barkley and Matt Corral haven’t worked out in the pros after playing for Kiffin. But Dart is the best prospect, by far, to come out of Kiffin’s system.

With the rise of the run-pass option, NFL teams have recently adopted some of Kiffin's concepts. That should make the transition easier for Dart than it was for , say, Barkley. 

The downside of the Kiffin offense is that defenses can disguise coverages and apply quick pressure.

Dart struggled against Florida and Georgia -- two defenses that disguised coverages and brought pressure before he could set his feet.

On this INT, Dart anticipates the pressure up the middle and launches the ball without setting his feet.

He overshoots his target right into the teeth of the coverage, leading to an easy INT for Georgia.

The gunslinger mentality and inability to adjust quickly after the snap could be a fatal flaw for Dart in the NFL.

Jaxson Dart Team Fit: Los Angeles Rams

Coming from the Kiffin offense, it would be best for Dart to sit behind a veteran while learning from an offensive coach.

Rams HC Sean McVay’s scheme would be one of the easiest translations for Dart. It is modern with presnap motion and play action to set up the QB for success.

McVay’s offense doesn’t pre-determine reads, but it is built to recognize defensive vulnerabilities pre-snap -- something Dart is familiar with.

Sitting behind Matthew Stafford for a year would also give Dart time to grow while learning behind another gunslinger with moxie.

Dynasty Value Conclusion: High Ceiling, Fragile Floor

Dart’s downfield passing combined with his rushing upside makes him a valuable dynasty asset, especially in Superflex leagues.

He has the physical tools to lead a pass-first offense, but should also receive a handful of carries each game.

The ceiling is high.

The floor, however, could fall out relatively quickly (like most Kiffin QBs). If Dart can’t adjust to an NFL offense, he could fizzle out as a passer within a season or two.

Dart is worth a roster spot, but his success may hinge on a good scheme fit and the surrounding talent.

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.