Ollie Gordon Dynasty Value: Buyer Beware, But Don’t Ignore the Ceiling

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Gordon’s 2023 showed everything you want in a workhorse back: production, versatility, and big-play ability.

But a lackluster follow-up season, underwhelming Combine, and off-field concerns have clouded his outlook.

Is Gordon a target or trap in dynasty rookie drafts? Let’s take a closer look at his profile ...

 

Ollie Gordon Dynasty Values

 

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Ollie Gordon Draft Profile

 

Ollie Gordon Combine Results

 

Ollie Gordon College Stats

High School Phenom

Gordon ran for 4,629 yards and 63 TDs over his final two seasons at Trinity High School in Euless, Texas.

A four-star recruit, Gordon chose Oklahoma State over scholarship offers from more than 15 other schools, including Texas, Michigan, and USC.

Gordon Flashes as a Freshman

Gordon appeared in all 13 games as a true freshman in 2022, finishing third on the team and second among RBs in carries.

Despite the limited role, he averaged 5.0 yards per carry -- significantly better than top back Dominic Richardson’s 3.6.

That set up Gordon’s breakout 2023 campaign.

Gordon Joins Elite Company with Doak Walker Award

Gordon led FBS with 1,732 rushing yards and 2,062 yards from scrimmage as a sophomore. And he did it despite totaling just 109 yards over the season's first three games.

Gordon eclipsed 100 rushing yards in nine of his final 11 games, including massive performances of 271 and 282. His per-game averages over that span:

• 24.2 carries
• 147.5 rushing yards
• 1.7 TDs

Gordon averaged 6.1 yards per carry and led the FBS with 31 runs of 15+ yards.

He also contributed as a receiver, hauling in 39 of 50 targets for 330 yards and a TD. The targets, catches, and receiving yards all ranked top 5 on the team.

Gordon was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year and a first-team All-American. He also became just the fourth sophomore to win the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top RB, joining Darren McFadden, Jonathan Taylor, and LaMichael James.

How the Numbers Quietly Predicted Gordon’s 2024 Decline

Gordon’s advanced metrics in 2023 weren’t quite as impressive as the raw production. Here’s where he ranked among 158 RBs with 100+ carries that season:

• 39th in yards after contact per attempt
• 72nd in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 22nd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

Good – but not dominant. Which makes Gordon’s 2024 decline a little less surprising.

What Went Wrong Last Year?

Gordon’s production, efficiency, and advanced metrics all took a steep dive this past year. He mustered just 880 yards and 13 TDs across 12 games. That’s a dip from 123.7 yards and 1.5 TDs per game to 73.3 yards and 1.1 TDs.

Gordon topped 100 yards four times but failed to crack 50 yards in six other games.

He sank from 6.1 yards per carry to 4.6. And the advanced metrics took an even bigger hit.

Among 31 RBs at the Combine, Gordon ranked: 

• 22nd in yards after contact per attempt
• 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 28th in PFF grade
• 17th in rush yards over expected per attempt

On top of the dip in broken tackles and YAC, Gordon struggled to generate explosive runs. Only eight of his 190 carries went for 15+ yards – a 4.2% clip that ranked 30th out of the 31 Combine RBs.

Gordon’s receiving production also dipped, from 23.6 yards per game in 2023 to just 14.9 in 2024.

His yards per catch fell from 8.5 to 6.2, although his PFF receiving grade jumped from 58.4 to 73.2. That improvement was largely due to Gordon cutting his drops from four in 2023 to zero in 2024.

Will Off-Field Concerns Sink His Stock?

Gordon was arrested and charged with DUI in the summer of 2024.

That off-field distraction may have contributed to his underwhelming season. How much it impacts his draft stock remains to be seen.

 

Ollie Gordon Highlights

Games watched: Kansas (2023), Cincinnati (2023), Texas A&M (2023), Arkansas, Utah

He Can Be a Downhill Dominator

At 226 pounds, Gordon brings surprising burst and plenty of pop. Once he gets going, good luck slowing him down.

Gordon finds a lane on this 43-yarder against Cincinnati and explodes into the second level. He doesn’t have quite enough speed to take it to the house, but it’s enough to turn a big hole into a big gain.

Here’s another example of Gordon’s surprising acceleration. He hits a cutback lane against Kansas and beats the angle on multiple defenders to get into the end zone.

Gordon Creates Yards With His Vision

Gordon shows impressive patience and vision when holes don’t immediately open up. 

On this run, Gordon presses outside, waits behind big No. 61, and then cuts upfield for a solid gain.

Here’s another example of Gordon biding his time behind the line of scrimmage and waiting for his pulling blocker to clear a running lane.

Big Man Gets Skinny

Gordon’s patience and vision are accentuated by his ability to get skinny through tight creases -- especially impressive at his size.

Gordon ducks a defender at the line of scrimmage on this run, turning a potential loss into an 11-yard gain.

Built to Go Forward -- Not Sideways

Gordon struggles when met with early resistance, especially behind the line of scrimmage. He struggles to change direction and accelerate when forced to re-route.

On this run, Gordon hesitates and shuffles his feet when met with penetration. Instead of bouncing outside for a potential first down, he cuts back into traffic and settles for a 1-yard gain.

Gordon is a linear runner, limited by below-average lateral agility. He takes four steps to make his cut upfield on this off-tackle run.

Gordon Doesn’t Always Play to His Size

Gordon sheds plenty of tackles in the open field, particularly once he’s up to full speed. But his power and leg drive near the line of scrimmage underwhelm.

This play is not well-blocked, but I'd like to see my 226-pound back push forward and pick up the first down.

He’s also runs upright. At 6’1, that gives defenders a big target to attack. Gordon took some big hits over the last two seasons.

Limited Route Tree, But the Hands Hold Up

Back on the plus side, Gordon offers value in the passing game. Oklahoma State didn’t ask him to run many routes, but he’s a reliable hands catcher who was particularly effective on screens.

Here he snags a high throw and turns it upfield for a nice gain against Kansas.

2024 Tape: Was He Playing Hurt??

Gordon looked like a completely different player in 2024 vs. 2023. So much so that I wonder if he was playing through injury.

In his defense, Oklahoma State’s offensive line was a mess. But the burst and power we saw from Gordon the previous season were missing.

Here’s a play that would have gone for 5-10 yards in 2023. But the 2024 version of Gordon hesitates behind the line, doesn’t have the burst to get through the hole, and then goes down on first contact.

 

Ollie Gordon Team Fit: Pittsburgh Steelers

I wouldn’t dare compare Gordon to Derrick Henry. But – and it’s a big but – there are shades of Henry to Gordon’s game when he’s at his best. A big back with sneaky burst who is tough to handle when he gets a lane.

So let’s get Gordon with Henry’s former OC Arthur Smith, who loves power football and downhill running. Gordon would be a nice early-down complement to the lighter and more explosive Jaylen Warren.

While Gordon would not be a three-down back in Pittsburgh, he’d have a chance to handle 200+ carries and control goal-line work.

 

Dynasty Value Conclusion: Which Version Of Gordon Will We Get?

Gordon is one of the trickier evaluations in this rookie RB class.

His 2023 tape and production scream high-end potential, with size, vision, and just enough juice to break big runs and contribute in the passing game. But his 2024 regression, athletic testing, and off-field red flag make him look like a late-round backup.

The upside is real -- but so are the red flags. Gordon's dynasty value will ultimately hinge on whether he can rediscover his 2023 form.

The draft will give us a good idea of whether the NFL believes he can. If Gordon gets Day 2 capital, he'll have a legitimate chance to lead his backfield in carries within the next year or two. If he slides into Day 3, that big 2023 season will look even further away.

Gordon is unlikely to emerge as a three-down, RB1 for fantasy squads. But he could compile enough rushing yards and TDs -- with some receiving production -- to be a solid RB2.

 

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