2025 Fantasy Football Breakouts: 5 Guys to Target Now

These Players Look Ready to Make Noise in 2025

Who the heck is Jalen Coker?

That’s what I was thinking somewhere around Week 8 last season. That week found the undrafted rookie posting a nice 4-78-1 receiving line on a tough Broncos pass defense.

Across his 11 games, Coker also outperformed first-round teammate Xavier Legette … handily.

But that’s only part of what makes him intriguing for 2025, and he’s just one of five players with breakout potential who we’ll cover here. 

2025 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates

• Drake Maye
• Jaylen Warren
• Rome Odunze
• Josh Downs
• Jalen Coker

What Makes Him a Breakout?

We’re looking for guys who are capable of delivering fantasy football production well above what they’ve done before. That requires two key factors:

And that brings us to this group.

It’s early in the 2025 NFL calendar, so situations are still evolving. But the five guys on this list have flashed us signals of their talent and appear on track for increased opportunity in 2025.

Let’s get to the specifics …

 

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

Maye showed his breakout potential as a rookie by thriving in poor conditions.

He delivered top-8 fantasy finishes in his first two starts after sitting behind Jacoby Brissett through the first five weeks. For the season, Maye tallied five top-12 fantasy finishes among his 10 full outings. That made him one of just 12 QBs who finished top 12 in at least half of their starts.

He did so in an offense that ranked just 27th in EPA (expected points added) per play. The Patriots also had no player reach 100 targets or 700 receiving yards, highlighting the dearth of help the QB found available.

Fresh Faces in Foxborough Could Unlock Maye

The Patriots clearly know that just about everything around Maye sucked last year. They showed that by firing HC Jerod Mayo after just one season and overhauling the coaching staff. That included dumping OC Alex Van Pelt for another round of Josh McDaniels.

McDaniels heads into his 14th year as New England OC, split into three parts. Only one of those previous 13 seasons found the Patriots ranked lower than eighth in scoring. That was 2020, when New England rocked this ugly QB crew:

• 31-year-old Cam Newton
• Jarrett Stidham
• Brian Hoyer

Sure, nearly all of the other 12 years featured Tom Brady at QB. That probably helped a little. But McDaniels also piloted the 2008 Pats to No. 8 in scoring and No. 5 in total yards with Matt Cassel filling in for an injured Brady. More recently, McDaniels coached a Mac Jones-led 2021 offense to the league’s sixth-most points.

McDaniels left for Vegas in 2022, and Jones fell apart. The coach’s return should help the offense.

Weapons? Still Not Great.

Most of New England’s big free-agent additions have come on defense. But they did sign WR Stefon Diggs to a three-year deal. Even coming off an October ACL tear at age 31, Diggs immediately becomes the team’s best wideout.

He probably won’t be nearly as explosive as younger versions of himself, but Diggs at least adds a reliable, experienced target. He ranked seventh in ESPN Open Score and 23rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade among 118 qualifying WRs last year.

The rest of the corps remains iffy. Demario Douglas has been a fine player through two seasons. TE is in solid shape, with Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. WR Kayshon Boutte flashed a bit in Year 2. Veteran WR Kendrick Bourne should be more useful than last year, now that he’s further removed from a 2023 ACL tear.

But this team should still be looking to add WR help in the draft.

Can New England Keep Maye Upright?

New England also didn’t help its rookie QB much with blocking. Pro Football Reference credited the Pats with allowing the eighth-highest pressure rate in 2024. ESPN ranked them 31st in pass-block win rate.

Maye and Brissett both ranked among the top 13 QBs in pressure rate, according to Pro Football Focus.

Maye handled it fairly well, at least. He tied for 16th in pressure-to-sack rate vs. a No. 13 ranking in pressure rate. That indicates his mobility kept a good number of those pressures from becoming sacks.

Maye also tied for the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate when pressured (66.7%). Of course, even he jumped to 77.1% adjusted completion rate in clean pockets.

Shockingly, it appears to be easier to play QB when you don’t have large men charging at you with violent intentions.

Imported Starters Might Not Be Enough

New England signed RT Morgan Moses and C Garrett Bradbury in free agency.

Minnesota let Bradbury – a former first-round pick – walk after six seasons, none of which found him ranking higher than 30th among centers in PFF pass-blocking grade.

Moses has fared considerably better. Despite heading into his age-34 season, Moses recorded the two best pass-blocking grades of his career among the past three campaigns.

We’ll see whether – and how much – the O-line improves. New England could elect to add to the group with the fourth overall pick of the draft.

Fortunately, Maye’s running ability makes that less important.

Maye’s Rushing is the Differentiator

Maye averaged 36.3 rushing yards per game across his 10 healthy starts last year. Among QBs, that trailed only:

• Lamar Jackson (53.8)
• Jayden Daniels (52.4)
• Anthony Richardson (45.4)
• Jalen Hurts (42.0)

That’s why we don’t need to worry too much about the O-line. It also sets a high fantasy floor for Maye, even if New England makes no more meaningful additions at WR.

Early Drafters Aren’t Getting It

The final piece here is Maye’s ADP. He sits just 15th among QBs in best ball ADP as of this writing.

His scoring average across those 10 healthy starts last year would have ranked 13th.

So the early draft market is basically saying that it doesn’t expect Maye to get any better in Year 2.

Even if he doesn’t, Maye’s a fine value at that level. But the high rushing floor and untapped passing upside give him scoring potential well beyond that starting point.

Breakout potential.

 

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

We listed Warren as a breakout candidate early last year as well. It didn’t work out, of course. But should that factor into his 2025 outlook?

Let’s discuss …

Warren Already Showed You His Upside

Najee Harris led the 2023 Pittsburgh backfield in touches. But Warren was the better player.

He more than doubled Harris in receptions in his second NFL season and averaged 1.3 more yards per carry. He ranked eighth among all RBs in yards after contact per carry. He tied for fifth in total missed tackles forced, despite ranking just 36th in carries. And he finished third in rush yards over expected per attempt.

Warren finished that season 21st among RBs in total PPR points, two spots ahead of Harris.

He’s now going just 28th among RBs in best ball ADP, despite Harris being gone. Warren seems like an easy buy at that level.

But Are You Just Ignoring Last Season, Dummy?

Of course not.

Warren’s rushing regressed by basically any measure last year. Harris nearly doubled Warren in carries per game, and even Warren’s receptions per game fell by 1.1 vs. 2023.

The advanced metrics that made Warren look so good in 2023 did not favor his 2024 performance. What happened?

Health Woes Made Warren Tough to Trust in 2024

Warren’s 2024 issues began with summer hamstring trouble. He made it back for the start of the season, but that issue likely at least limited his early-season usage.

Warren handled just four, 11, and four touches over the first three weeks, leaving that third game early with a knee injury. He missed the next two games and saw limited playing time in his Week 6 return. And then a back injury surfaced for Week 11.

Warren performed better from Week 7 on vs. his full-season numbers. Over that span, among 53 RBs with 50+ carries, he ranked:

• 10th in yards after contact per attempt
• tied for 15th in missed tackles forced
• eighth in Pro Football Focus elusive rating

That remained down vs. 2023 but offered some encouragement.

One Big Hurdle Remains

Harris leaving is important, and the Steelers have so far added only former Eagles RB Kenneth Gainwell (on a small one-year deal). But the NFL Draft holds some potential landmines.

If the Steelers draft a RB within the first three rounds, it could signal that Pittsburgh wants to cap Warren’s workload.

But if they wait until Day 3 or go without drafting a RB at all, then we could be in for a lot more Warren touches in 2025.

For now, he’s a solid buy at cost – with the upside to smash that draft price.

 

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears

This guy might bring the most straightforward case on the list: talent, situation, and a couple of key changes for 2025.

It’s easy to envision Odunze improving in his second season. So easy, in fact, that the early draft market on whole sees it.

A late-Round 4 best ball ADP actually positions Odunze as a poor value by our Market Index. But the 2024 first-round pick presents enticing breakout potential anyway …

Odunze’s Talent Might Finally Get a Real Shot

We can all probably agree that Odunze’s at least pretty good, right?

He went ninth overall in last year’s draft, third in what looks like a tremendous class of WRs – ahead of Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, and others.

Among all WR prospects since 2021, Odunze ranks seventh in Rookie Model Score. He trails only:

1. Ja’Marr Chase
2. Travis Hunter
3. Marvin Harrison Jr.
4. Malik Nabers
5. Jaylen Waddle
6. Tetairoa McMillan

… and that’s before we have draft positions for Hunter and McMillan.

Odunze led the Pac-12 in receiving yards each of his final two seasons, averaging 109.3 per game while leading all of FBS in 2023.

But he found some blockage as an NFL rookie.

Keenan Allen Out of the Way

Odunze drew a solid 101 targets in 2024, but his 5.9 targets per game checked in well short of the rates for D.J. Moore (8.2) and Keenan Allen (8.1).

Allen’s gone now, though. And Olamide Zaccheaus has been the position’s biggest free-agent addition.

Allen ranked 21st among WRs in target share last season (adjusted for games missed), compared with 51st for Odunze.

The rookie, however, led the team in air-yards share:

What’s all that mean? We should be getting a significantly larger target share for a talented young WR who works an area of the field that boosts fantasy-scoring efficiency.

But he’ll need some help …

QB Must Improve to Foster a Breakout

It’s easy to project improvement for Odunze. That’s why he’s already going 25th among WRs in best ball drafting.

We have him projected more conservatively than that for a couple of primary reasons:

1. It’s impossible to know right now just how much new HC Ben Johnson will pass. He spent the past three years as OC for the Lions, who ran on 45.2% of offensive plays over that span. Their 49.4% neutral pass rate over that span ranked 25th. But Johnson has no Dan Campbell, Jahmyr Gibbs, or David Montgomery anymore.
2. Caleb Williams didn’t play very well as a rookie. Sure, he flashed the talent and fantasy upside at times. But he ranked just 23rd (among 34 qualifiers) in adjusted completion rate, 29th in on-target pass rate, and 32nd in bad-throw rate.

Williams especially struggled throwing deep. According to Pro Football Focus, here’s how he ranked among 35 QBs with 25+ deep attempts (20+ yards downfield):

• 30th in completion rate
• 32nd in adjusted completion rate
• 33rd in passing grade

That especially dinged Odunze, given his deeper average target depth.

Here’s Why You Should Believe in Odunze’s Upside

We know that Odunze’s talented. We know his QB is physically gifted. And we know that Ben Johnson has been widely praised for his offensive ingenuity.

Williams should be well set up to at least improve this year. And he has the talent to jump quite a bit if he can work out his issues.

More targets alone will boost Odunze’s fantasy scoring. Even last year’s version of the Bears ranked a solid 15th in total WR PPR points, with Moore and Allen both among the top 36 in points per game.

If all works in his favor, Odunze sports upside into the position’s top 20.

 

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Whoa, whoa, whoa … doesn’t he have a big-time QB issue?

Yep. But everybody knows it … including the Colts. 

That factor’s driving Downs’ draft cost down to an absurd level, though. And he doesn’t need a big-time solution to deliver season-boosting value.

The Market is Wrong on Downs

Let’s start at the base: Downs finished 35th among WRs in total PPR points last season; 31st in points per game. That’s solidly higher than he’s currently being drafted.

Yes, he scored very differently depending on the QB. Downs’ 15.5 points per game when Joe Flacco served as the primary passer would have ranked 17th at the position for the season.

Downs averaged just 10.7 PPR points over seven shared games with Anthony Richardson, though. That would have tied for just 47th. We did get three games of 15+ points even among that seven-game sample. But 2024 Richardson was undeniably a problem.

And the Colts are addressing it.

Daniel Jones is Good News … Even if You Hate Him

Downs is being drafted at the level he scored with a poor-performing Richardson last year. So probably near his healthy floor.

But the Colts have been telling us all offseason that they won’t put up with the same Richardson they got last year. They said it first with words, and then they proved it with Daniel Jones’ contract.

Jones got $13.15 million guaranteed on a one-year deal, with a max value of $17 million. That sure ain’t backup money.

Richardson will need to improve his passing in 2025, or Jones will take over the job. That might not excite you, but the Colts clearly believe Jones would be a significant upgrade over Joe Flacco. If they didn’t, they could have simply re-signed Flacco for far less money.

But Didn’t Jones’ First Team Quit on Him?

Yes. The point here is not that Jones arrives as some grand savior. He’s the floor. And he has been friendly to shorter-range WRs.

That started in 2019, when Jones tossed eight of his 24 TD passes to Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard.

Shepard went on to lead the Giants in receptions per game each of the next three seasons. The next year found TE Darren Waller and new slot WR Wan’Dale Robinson easily leading a limited passing offense.

And through the 10 weeks that Jones spent with the Giants last year, Robinson ranked fifth among all WRs in targets – even while teammate Malik Nabers ranked second.

Jones has averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt for his career. If you’re a competent shorter-range pass catcher, you are his people.

Downs Fits Jones ... and Might be Better Than Pittman

If Jones hits the field for the Colts, he’s sure to like Downs.

First, Downs sported the shortest average depth of target among Colts non-RBs last season. He checked in more than a yard short of the nearest teammate. But that signals only the area of the field he tends to work, not a limited player.

Downs also led all Colts in:

• Expected PPR points per game
• Expected TDs
• Yards per route

(WR Anthony Gould technically beat Downs in yards per route, but he had just one catch all season.)

Downs’ 12.2 expected PPR points per game ranked 36th at the position and beat Michael Pittman Jr. by 0.7. That marked a big change from the year before, when Pittman ranked 11th among all WRs to Downs’ 54th.

Despite the poor QB play, Downs improved across advanced-metric categories.

If that QB play ascends with him this year, then we could be in for a real breakout.

 

Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers

Coker’s gotta be the most surprising name on this list. He surprised me as a candidate – a guy I haven’t really been targeting this early best ball season, despite an ADP outside the top 60 at WR.

But I’ve been wrong …

Coker Arrived as a Sneaky-Good Prospect

That’s a weird assessment for a player who went undrafted. But there was plenty to like about the young WR from Holy Cross.

The biggest plus: his stellar production.

Coker broke through as a 2021 sophomore, a season in which he didn’t turn 20 until late October. Coker claimed 24.3% of Holy Cross receptions and 26.3% of the receiving yardage.

He improved from there, corralling 30.5% of team receptions in 2022, with 34.4% of the yardage and 39.3% of the TD catches. And then came a truly dominant final campaign:

• 38.3% of receptions
• 46.7% of yards
• 60% of TDs

Coker averaged 16.6 yards per catch across his college career; 17.9 over his final two seasons.

He was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award – the FCS equivalent to the Heisman Trophy – and then delivered explosive jumps in Combine testing.

The 40 time likely would have been faster, but Coker brought a hamstring issue with him to the Combine, tweaked it further there, and couldn’t re-run it at his pro day.

That sequence might well have kept him from getting drafted.

Coker Goes from Overlooked to Overachiever

“We’re lucky that he didn’t get drafted,” Panthers WRs coach Rob Moore said in December. “When you turn on the tape, you can see the talent.”

Coker continued to deal with hamstring trouble into his early time with Carolina, adding an issue with the other hamstring, and opening training camp on the PUP list.

Coker landed on the practice squad to open the season but made it to the active roster by Week 4 and then topped 50% playing time in Week 5. He continued working as a starter from that point on and outperformed his first-round classmate.

Coker vs. Legette: The Undrafted Underdog Triumphs

From Week 5 through the end of the season, Coker edged first-round WR Xavier Legette in route rate. He slightly trailed Legette in target share and targets per route, indicating the team was trying to get the ball to the guy it drafted first. (Makes sense.)

Legette also led Coker in average target depth and air yards share. That points to the team trying harder to work its speedy (4.39-second 40 time) first-round pick down the field. (Makes sense.)

All of that makes the way Coker outperformed Legette over their shared time even more impressive …

Veteran Panthers WR Adam Thielen certainly came away impressed:

Sounds like a guy with breakout potential.

One Big Thing Could Still Get in the Way

We’ll see, of course, whether Coker continues to outplay Legette. But the bigger issue for his 2025 outlook might be the NFL Draft.

The Panthers pick eighth overall, which should put them in range to take the class’ top WR prospect – Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, by our rookie rankings – if they want to.

That level of investment would likely position that new guy as the favorite to lead the corps. And even a WR pick in Round 2 or 3 could challenge the 2025 depth chart.

We’ll see what happens on that front.

 

So Where Should You Target These Guys?

I've talked a lot about ADP, and that's important for knowing where you'll need to target a player.

If you check our fantasy football rankings, however, not all these guys are going to look like values. Does that mean you should just pass on them? Not necessarily.

Straight fantasy football rankings are interesting, but they don't come close to telling the full story.

That's why 3D projections drive everything we do around here. They deliver a richer picture of a player's value, and they custom fit to your specific format.

Check out the video below to learn more, and then see how they affect your rankings.